KaiseRoll's Wednesday Targets

Posted by KaiseRoll13 KaiseRoll13
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The following is a breakdown by position of players worth targeting for tonight's slate of games. I'll feature a few “Top Targets” and give you the “Best of the Rest” to include other options that are set to hit their relative value as well. Salaries and position eligibility are specific to FanDuel for the purpose of this article, but some values are likely to translate to other sites.


PG
TOP TARGETS
Rajon Rondo $6300- Rondo had his best output of the season last game with 43 fpts in 27 mins. 9-11 shooting is unsustainable, but a date with the Sixers tonight leaves him ripe for the picking.

Kyrie Irving $8200- Kyrie gets the Lakers at home, where he averages an astounding 9.5 more fpts per game than on the road. Last game, despite Jarrett Jack getting inserted into the starting lineup, Irving tallied 42 fpts in 40 mins. In his last five he's averaging a 24-6-4-1 line on 20(!) shots.

Brandon Jennings $7400- 20+ actual points in five straight on 15+ shots in each. He's even tallied 7+ assists in four of those five outings. Jennings needs 36 fpts for value at this price, and has topped 41 in four of six.

Nick Calathes $4600- His first game starting in place of Conley was all about scoring (22 pts on 4-5 from range) en route to 35 fpts. Last game his minutes were cut to 29, he didn't make a three, and still managed to put up 24 fpts. The DAL backcourt plays notoriously poor defense so fire up Calathes as the most reliable cheaper option at PG tonight.

BEST OF THE REST
Damian Lillard $7200- Would like to see more consistency out of Lillard before bumping him into the Jennings/Kyrie range, but he's posted 21-7-6+ in two straight coming into a ripe matchup at Madison Square Garden. His talent is never lacking, but POR finds too much balance to support him topping 40 regularly.

Jarrett Jack $3500- It remains to be seen if the Cavs' previous game will serve as a blueprint going forward. Jack was thrust into the starting lineup and played a whopping 40 mins while Waiters was relegated to 11 mins off the bench. IF Jack is starting again tonight there's good reason to think he can match his 20-25 fpts against a soft Lakers defense.


SG
TOP TARGETS
Dwyane Wade $7300- His mins have increased in each of the four games since returning from injury. Wade is on fire shooting the ball going 30-46 over a three game stretch. Matchup tonight with the Clippers offers a high-scoring expectation (208 o/u) in a tight game on the road (LAC -1.5), and he is underpriced compared to his full production when healthy. Note: make sure there are no negative reports on him leading into contests starting.

Danny Green $3500- Even though there's 24 teams going tonight it's unusually difficult to find cheap value plays. For this reason Green cracks the Top Targets at SG over some of the middle-priced guys. In his first game back from a long absence, Green put up 22 fpts in 30 mins on just 1-7 shooting. The mins are a great sign, and he certainly won't shoot any worse than that in most games...so I like him to crack 20 again at his minimum price, with the chance for more.

Courtney Lee $5000- Another cheaper play to fill out other positions with toptions, Lee has played 37+ mins in both games with Conley out. Last game he was held to 19 fpts by Sefolosha but MEM as a team only scored 77 points. Vegas has them at 96 points tonight at home against the Mavs and it wouldn't be surprising if a matchup with Monta Ellis made Lee's mins more productive. I like him for 25-30 fpts tonight.

BEST OF THE REST
Brad Beal $6500- He's bound to blowup soon with the minutes restriction lifted. Two disappointing games in a row makes him a solid GPP option with the ceiling that he carries. For H2H you may want to wait for his big game before plugging him.

DeMar DeRozan $8600- He'll likely go neck-and-neck with Wade tonight for top overall SG, but is priced a bit higher. A matchup with the Kings is a good reason to expect his usual 35-40 fpts.

Randy Foye $6000- Foye still played 40 mins upon Lawson's return to the lineup. That's an encouraging sign for his role with NateRob out, but if he needs all 40 mins to post the 30 fpts he scored then it may be tough to reach value here. A cake matchup for DEN tonight against MIL means he could be more productive in his time on the floor...but also that a blowout could cap that time to 30-35 mins.


SF
TOP TARGETS
LeBron James $10600- Durant has finally priced himself out of value, and LeBron has come on strong with 57 & 60 fpts in his last two games with Wade playing extremely well too. He shot 54% over those two which is actually lower than his season average (58%), which tells you how much he's contributing across the entire box score. There's not many appealing options at SF tonight so working backwards from LeBron on ESPN against the Clippers is a great place to start.

JR Smith $5500- Even with Shumpert's return last game Smith played 39 mins off the bench and caught fire for 41 fpts. The Knicks will badly need his scoring tonight against the Blazers so expect another 35+ mins with 15 or so shots putting him in the 25-30 fpts range.

Rudy Gay $8300- He's priced a bit higher than I would like with Cousins back, but a lack of reliable alternatives bring him into the fold this evening. He threw up a dud last game (23 fpts) in the laugher vs. CHI in just 25 mins. Figure that against the team that traded him (TOR) he'll get to play his full 35-40 mins and bounceback in a big way in his fight to prove that he's worth every penny of his obscene contract.

BEST OF THE REST
Khris Middleton $4400- If you want an even cheaper option at SF this is your guy. Middleton has scored double figures in eight straight and gets a boost to his floor with Caron Butler out indefinitely. The Bucks could get lit up tonight but if he plays well maybe he sees some action through a blowout. At the very least it's a high-scoring matchup with DEN and he should be in the 20-25 fpts range.


PF
TOP TARGETS
Jared Sullinger $5800- Sully has blown up in his last two, playing 35+ mins in each for 37 (vs. ORL) & 46 (vs. PHI) fpts. Tonight he gets a rematch against the defensively defunct Sixers making him a fantastic target at this price.

Anthony Davis $10,000- There's a ton of horses tonight at the top of the PF list. Love is on a B2B and took a hard fall last night that will surely leave him sore for tonight. I prefer Davis to Melo and Blake because he tops 50 fpts the most consistently. The Hornets get the undersized Hawks frontcourt tonight off a B2B, so they are 2.5 point favorites at home which bodes well for the Brow to hit his mark.

Serge Ibaka $7500- Serge is on a tear, shooting 61% in his last five including 10-17 against a tough MEM defense last time out. For $2k less than the top guys you get Ibaka posting a consistent 35-40 fpts of late.

BEST OF THE REST
Kenneth Faried $5600- Coming off a career-high 28 points last game, Manimal is primed for a solid game against the sorry Bucks. He shot 11-13 which is unsustainable, but scored 29-37 fpts in three of four leading into the monster 51 fpts effort. He's only averaged 33 minutes in his last five, so he doesn't need a ton of court time to post big numbers.


C
TOP TARGETS
DeMarcus Cousins $9300- Cousins returned to the lineup with a statement game against the Bulls last time out, posting 48 fpts in just 34 mins of the blowout. He said after the game that he thinks he shouldn't have played, which is scary in two ways...he's a risk to re-injure his ankle, but more likely with a day off yesterday he could be even healthier than last game. TOR offers a much better matchup than CHI did, and Cousins sat the last five minutes due to a 27 point lead. The Kings are 1 point underdogs tonight making Cousins an extremely attractive option and easy top overall C.

Robert Sacre $3500- On the opposite side of the pricing spectrum is Sacre. He played many more minutes last night (31) than his previous starts this season, which could have been due to Jordan Hill's departure after 3 mins played. IF Hill is rested tonight then expect similar results (24 fpts) against an undersized Cavs team. If Hill is playing, then Sacre is a cheap fill-in without too much ceiling.

BEST OF THE REST
J.J. Hickson $6400- Hickson is the right guy in the middle-range of prices tonight. He's coming off two 40 fpts games in a row and topped 30 in six of ten. It's possible his minutes are reduced in a blowout, but should still get his licks in against MIL.

Timofey Mozgov $4200- His last couple games have been extremely poor because Denver has left the starters in for more minutes. Mozgov has topped 30 fpts in three of eight which is good enough to put him on the GPP radar in a predictable blowout situation vs. MIL tonight.


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