KaiseRoll's Monday Targets

Posted by KaiseRoll13 KaiseRoll13

The following is a breakdown by position of players worth targeting for tonight's slate of games. I'll feature a few “Top Targets” and give you the “Best of the Rest” to include other options that are set to hit their relative value as well. Salaries and position eligibility are specific to FanDuel for the purpose of this article, but some values are likely to translate to other sites.

Deron Williams $6900- Back in the starting lineup after coming off the bench in six straight, Deron played 39 minutes in a tough matchup against IND. He managed 29 fpts on 3-12 shooting, and Livingston was unusually hot. Now up against the lowly Sixers, Deron is priced under his production level as a full-time starter and draws the best matchup possible. As a bonus, he has shot 10% better from the field with 2 more assists per game at home on the year.

Nick Calathes $3500- Nobody expected the Conley fill-in to drop 35 fpts in his first start...but it was against MIL. Even with expectations tempered a bit, Calathes played 40 minutes and had been decently productive in very limited minutes off the bench previously. I would put him more in the 20-25 fpts range on average which could easily justify his minimum price.

John Wall $8800- If you're looking to pay for the top overall PG tonight Wall is your guy. The Wizards are a pick 'em at home against POR in a 208 o/u game. Wall has topped 40 fpts in seven of his past ten games and averages 43 fpts per game at home vs. just 36 on the road.

DJ Augustin $6400- He's averaged 39 minutes in his last two despite Hinrich's return. His shot totals over his last four are as high as they've been all year (17 17 15 19), and a matchup with SAC  is looking like a safe place to take Augustin at this medium price.

Tony Wroten $4900- IF Michael-Carter Williams is officially ruled out, then Wroten makes for a solid plug-n-play for the Sixers. He's a high-volume shooter when he starts as indicated by his 8-19 clip last game. In 12 games as a starter on the year Wroten has averaged 16.8 shots in 33.7 minutes, totaling over 31 fpts per game. There's blowout risk tonight @ BKN but it shouldn't keep him from rolling past his low price.

Brad Beal $6800- As the calendar turned February his minutes restriction of 30 was lifted. Last game he put up a dud against OKC but saw 34 minutes on the floor in a blowout win. He was heating up in his six previous games flashing some of the ceiling we saw from him earlier in the year before his injury. A high-scoring matchup with the Blazers tonight at home could be exactly what he needs to be back on the radar for fantasy owners. You may not see his price this low the rest of the season.

DeMar DeRozan $8500- He's priced high but it's hardly a surprise anymore when DeRozan blows up. After looking a bit off in his first game back from an ankle injury, the second one he went gangbusters...14-29 shooting in 41 minutes @ POR for a robust 36-12-4-1 line. He's healthy, he's shooting a ton, he's passing well...easily top overall SG tonight.

Courtney Lee $4900- Lee played 40 minutes last game with Conley out, handling the ball with regularity en route to 7 assists. He put up 24 actual points against OKC in a narrow win on Jan. 14 and the Grizzlies will need more of his scoring touch tonight in a rematch.

Randy Foye $6100- With Lawson coming back tonight Foye shouldn't come anywhere near his 16 assists last game, but also shouldn't approach 8 turnovers either. His role is safe with Nate Robinson out, as Fournier should backup both guard positions now. Expect him to take on a larger scoring role in tonight's game against LAC that has the highest o/u at 216. He won't fly by this price, but a steady 27-34 is reasonable and a high floor.

Joe Johnson $5900- GPP play of the day, Johnson obliterated the Sixers on Dec. 16 to the tune of 37-7-5-1-1 on TEN threes in just 30 minutes of play. He's been horrible lately, not topping 20 fpts in any of his past five contests...but Sixers can cure all ailments. If Blatche sits the Nets could lean a little more on their starters for offense.

Rudy Gay $7300- His Achilles injury is quickly a think of the past. Gay has turned in B2B 50+ fpts and shot 58% in three games since returning. At this price and a difficult position to consistently find value (SF), run him out there until he fails you.

Jae Crowder $3500- In six games starting as a forward, Crowder has averaged 31 minutes and 20 fpts. On Friday in a spot start he posted 22 fpts in 30 minutes so it's pretty clear what to expect from him with Marion out. The matchup against a falling Cavs team is no reason to think any different...it's not flashy but it IS value at this minimum price. Consider yourself lucky if he cracks 25 though.

Paul Pierce $6200- Many a Nets player will be mentioned in this piece facing PHI. There's a little more security for Pierce with Kirilenko still sitting, and he managed a solid 36 fpts in 33 minutes last game vs. the top IND defense. He'll definitely have a chance to match that tonight, with only a looming blowout holding him back from expecting it.

JR Smith $5500- He's a great option at this price, especially if Shumpert sits. Smith has attempted double digit shots in four straight with 34+ minutes in each. Multiple three pointers made in his last eight games tells you where his game is offensively, and if he keeps jacking those bombs up points will likely follow. His 27 fpts average over his last six games is slightly above this price point.

Zach Randolph $7700- Z-Bo's scoring role is more secure with Conley sidelined and OKC's weakness lies in their frontcourt. He put up 43 fpts in 40 minutes against the Thunder on Jan. 14th so the matchup with Ibaka isn't a deterrent. His floor has already been high with 36+ in five straight (even though Conley only sat the last game). MEM is an 8 point underdog so there could be some blowout risk but I think Randolph gets his licks in regardless and battles all game to a 35-40+ fpts result.

Blake Griffin $9700- It feels a bit ballsy preferring him over Anthony Davis and Aldridge tonight but here's my reasoning...Blake posted a 24-16-4-1-1 line against DEN on Dec. 21 in just 36 minutes of a 21 point victory. He's scored 25+ actual points in seven of his past eight, and (as mentioned before) tonight's game has the highest o/u at 216. The Clippers are only favored by 2 with Lawson back which could force Blake into 40 minutes of action this time around. I feel like I know what I'm getting with him here at a discount under the other two and I like it. Davis shredded CHI CLE and ORL in his last three but the Spurs matchup always carries more risk. He's put up 45 & 27 fpts against SA in two games this year. Aldridge looks like the 2nd best of the group in a much higher-scoring matchup than NO/SA, but is also priced $1k higher.

Ersan Ilyasova $5200- I literally shudder every time I type a Bucks player, but if you're looking for cheaper value at PF Ersan is a good place to start. He's topped 29 fpts in four of five and if he can do it again it'll be well worth this price. The Bucks are at home against the Knicks so maybe that helps prevent some normal blowout risk scenario. One thing to note is that Pachulia came back last game after a long absence and if Henson plays tonight then it could give Larry Drew too many toys to play with. If Henson is out I'm more comfortable using Ilyasova.

Marvin Williams $4400- IF Favors and Jeremy Evans are officially out, the door could be open for Marvin to feed his owners for a third straight game. The Raptors don't offer too much by way of frontcourt defense and Williams played a whopping 36 minutes last game for the injury-riddled Jazz. He's put up 29 & 33 fpts in his last two while sitting the game between them with a bum heel.

Enes Kanter $4800- He's basically a must-start if Favors sits again, but if no news is out before games lock I think he's still worth the dice roll in case he hits his ceiling against TOR. He put up a huge 40 fpts against the Clippers last game and you won't want to miss out if he comes anywhere close to repeating that feat. His results have been quite variable this year but at this price (and without any clear value elsewhere at C) 25 fpts would do fine.

Joakim Noah $9000- Noah has been remarkably productive as the premiere passing Center in the league. He's averaged 43 fpts in his last seven (with no fewer than 36) which is spot on at this price. The Kings offer a higher-scoring matchup than the Bulls are used to, so chip up to Noah from Kanter if you want the top overall Center tonight.

Marcin Gortat $6600- Gortat has found great consistency of late ranging from 28-38 fpts in six of his past seven. The Wizards are going to need all they can get out of him at home against POR in a game with a 208 o/u. He provides the steadiest production at a price between the two Top Targets.

Andre Drummond $7500- Drummond is an intriguing GPP play tonight against an undersized Heat team. He faced them twice in a week in early December with solid results in both (38 fpts in 23 minutes while fouling out, 43 fpts in 36 mins with 1 foul). He's cracked 50 twice in his last four and that score tonight would likely launch him to the top of the position.