KaiseRoll's Monday Targets

Posted by KaiseRoll13 KaiseRoll13

The following is a breakdown by position of players worth targeting for tonight's slate of games. I'll feature a few “Top Targets” and give you the “Best of the Rest” to include other options that are set to hit their relative value as well. Salaries and position eligibility are specific to FanDuel for the purpose of this article, but some values are likely to translate to other sites.

DJ Augustin $6500- 36+ fpts in four of five, and if Hinrich is ruled out tonight Augustin again is the perfect blend of affordable price and expected production. 196 is a high o/u for a Bulls game too.

Isaiah Thomas $8400- IT2 is my top overall PG tonight with a rock-solid game log of 35+ fpts in five straight and a major bump in shot attempts with Gay and Cousins out the last two. Cousins is officially out for Monday while Gay still traveled with the team and his status will be determined later. Thomas has chucked up 52 shots in those two games without a dip in rebounds or assists, so a date with the Jazz tonight could be a huge output we don't want to miss out on. If Gay is announced playing Thomas still looks like a 40fpt player tonight.

Shelvin Mack $4300- He took on the starting PG with Teague out last game but didn't get a full output since the Hawks obliterated MIL. In a normal game he should play 30+ mins instead of 24, and can be a decent source of assists when he's on the court. If you'd rather chip up at other positions then Mack has the cap relief you're looking for.

Goran Dragic $8100- It'd be silly not to mention Dragic going up against the Sixers tonight as a high-potential option. He's not as consistent as IT2 but 40+ in half of his last ten shows that he can take advantage of increased floortime (playing 36+ mins in each of those efforts). If tonight's game stays close Dragic could blow up against MCW.

Kyle Lowry $8100- With DeRozan out for his first full game, Lowry could take on an even larger scoring role. With Terrence Ross shooting the lights out Saturday there was no need for Lowry to take more than his 10 shots, but a spike to 15+ as the primary playmaker could bring Lowry to the top of the PG list tonight. Holding him back a bit is that the Raps are 4 point underdogs on the road @ BKN in a 190 o/u game.

Greivis Vasquez $4300- More of a GPP option with so many more reliable PG plays tonight, Vasquez is expected to play more mins with DeRozan out. He topped 30 fpts in three straight before two much lesser efforts.

Gordon Hayward $7800- With injuries wiping out his competitors for top SG honors tonight, Hayward is the easy choice in a game at home with a high o/u (205) that the Jazz are actually favored(!). Playing 4 more mins per game at home, he also shoots 5% better from the field resulting in 4 more ppg. Peg him for 35-40 fpts in close to 40 mins played tonight.

Terrence Ross $4600- It would be surprising not to see Ross on a majority of teams tonight after his career-high outburst of 51 actual points on Saturday. If Derozan was playing I wouldn't even recommend Ross tonight, but the opportunity is there for him to run with and Dwayne Casey already said a week ago that the staff is committed to getting him more opportunities. He presents an interesting conundrum for DFS strategy tonight. On one hand, I don't expect him to have much chance to hit 30 fpts based on his history and struggles shooting the ball. If he doesn't hit his buckets early the shots could disappear the rest of the game. However, with how popular he should be across opposing lineups I'm inclined to suggest matching him as a pick to protect against the chance that he seizes this opportunity with DeRozan out. So, with that said, I would mix him into h2h and 50/50s but probably fade him in GPP's since he'll be highly-owned and carries a low floor.

Louis Williams $4500- As far as straight up production, I would favor LouWill over Terrence Ross tonight. He played 37 mins as a starter for Carroll two games ago when Teague got hurt, then put up 25 fpts in 24 mins last game in the blowout with Teague out. He didn't play any of the final 8.5 mins since the game was out of reach, so he looks like a solid 20-25 fpts option for as long as Teague is sidelined with the chance for more. I don't view him coming off the bench as too much of a negative, especially since it could protect him from shortened mins in a potential blowout loss @ OKC.

Marcus Thornton $4100- If Rudy Gay is out, Thornton is thrust into the mix of sub-4k priced options at SG. He blew up unexpectedly against IND two games ago for 48 fpts and followed it up decently yesterday with 22 fpts in 28 mins. He still stayed hot shooting the ball (8-13) but got into foul trouble early and Ben McLemore's unusually solid play kept Thornton from hitting 30 mins. IF Gay is announced out Thornton should be the most reliable of the three cheap SG's since he has a two-game stretch (unlike Ross) and is a starter (unlike LouWill) with the likelihood of being a bigger centerpiece on offense.

Kevin Durant $12400- It feels crazier and crazier recommending a guy at this price (and rising), but Durant continues to defy logic. Quality options are few and far between today, and even more scarce at SF, so it makes sense to lock in Durant and work backwards from it with some other values elsewhere. He needs 60 fpts to hit value at this price which I would never project him for...but he's hit that mark in three of five and with limited SF targets it's also about the gap analysis between him and the other guys you'd replace him with. You can't get stuck paying 6000 for a guy that may only drop 20fpts while KD is hitting the 50-60 range.

DeMarre Carroll $5300- This is a bit of an under-the-radar pick, but as I said above...value at SF is difficult to decipher tonight. Carroll was playing well before a hamstring injury sidelined him for a game. In his return Saturday he knocked down all three treys for a 12-6-4 line in just 24 mins because  of the blowout win over the Bucks (Hawks were up 26 when Carroll was pulled with 19 mins left in the game still). He'll surely have a tough assignment with Durant tonight, but with Teague still out he feels like the most reliable mix of role and price. This game also sports the second-highest o/u tonight at 205.5, which could help diminish any effects of blowout risk.

Evan Turner $6700- If you are looking for a different option that looks like a 25-30 fpt result tonight I would lean Turner. He could be a better GPP option due to his fluctuations in production, but the PHO/PHI game is projected for 213 points and I would give him the edge over Dunleavy as an option since he has a higher ceiling. Dunleavy has less risk though for what it's worth.

Derrick Williams $4300- IF Rudy Gay is announced out and Williams is officially starting after missing the end of last game with a cut to his mouth...then he should be the most reliable source of value at PF tonight. He put up 26 fpts in 31 mins last night, but would have a shot at 40 mins tonight in place of Gay. He predictably struggled in the first start against IND, piling up 5 fouls in 34 mins but still managed a respectable 22 fpts.

Markieff Morris $4900- His downgame on Friday showed the risk of banking on a bench player, but there's no ignoring what Markieff has done in his last 6 games (33 fpts avg.) and he bounced back yesterday with a monster 27-15-2-1 line in 33 mins against CLE. The matchup tonight with the Sixers projects for the most points, and could also allow the Suns to run with a small lineup like they did much of yesterday (Plumlee just 18 mins).

Andray Blatche $5600- Another primo bench producer, Blatche has topped 30 fpts in four of five. I like the matchup for him against Toronto tonight, and there could also be a report breaking later that Garnett sits tonight coming off an emotional return to Boston yesterday. At the very least KG should play less mins in the b2b as the Nets have been mindful of his age and rested him in three games involving b2b's. If Blatche starts I would fire him up to the top of this list.

Jason Thompson $4900- Don't expect Thompson to cruise past 30 fpts but at this price 25 could be solid enough production if the “Top Targets” don't come through. Good matchup for Thompson against Utah and he could crash the boards all night. Limiting his ceiling is the fact that he hasn't shot more than 12 times in a game all season.

Joakim Noah $9000- There are hardly any quality C options tonight so Noah is in a footrace with Pekovic to the top of this list. I prefer Noah since he has topped 36 fpts in five straight and doesn't need to score to put up those numbers (11 12 9 actual points in last three). He has dished out 6+ assists in seven of eight(!) and the odd game out was a cool 55 fpts effort vs. PHI in 31 mins. Playing at home in a higher scoring expectation than usual Bulls games I prefer chipping up to Noah for his diverse contributions and bigger minutes.

Nikola Pekovic $7900- If you need the price break under Noah, Pek is your best option by a good margin. He's averaged a solid 36 fpts in his last 10 games, and 21 ppg-10 rpg in January on over 15 shots per game. I worry a bit that this game expects to be lower scoring than usual T-Wolves affairs, and that Noah defending him could limit his open looks.

Enes Kanter $4900- He comes with obvious risk, but there's a chance neither “Top Target” reach their value tonight and Kanter has sporadic great games. He couldn't capitalize as a starter in Favors' absence, but upon Derrick's return Kanter beasted to a 24-5-2 line on a sparkling 11-13 shooting. Keeping in mind his low floor (under 20 fpts in four of eight), he should be worth mixing in some GPP entries for his underpriced ceiling (28+ fpts in the other four).

Shark-Free Contests

Fanduel 10 Man/$5

Fanduel 10 Man/$2

Fanduel 5 Man/$5

Fanduel 2 Man/$2