KaiseRoll's Friday Targets

Posted by KaiseRoll13 KaiseRoll13
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The following is a breakdown by position of players worth targeting for tonight's slate of games. I'll feature a few “Top Targets” and give you the “Best of the Rest” to include other options that are set to hit their relative value as well. Salaries and position eligibility are specific to FanDuel for the purpose of this article, but some values are likely to translate to other sites.


PG
TOP TARGETS
Ty Lawson $8600- After sitting two games, Lawson has come back to play big minutes with NateRob out, posting 41 fpts in three straight games played. That's right where he's priced tonight in a projected close game @ NY (DEN -1).

John Wall $9400- Wall has been much better at home all year highlighted by his 55 44 54 41 44 56 fpts home game log. He's the top overall PG tonight against Kyrie's notoriously poor defense, but gets a small bump below Lawson for being priced a bit higher and blowout risk against a reeling CLE team (double-digit losses in five straight).

BEST OF THE REST
Deron Williams $6700- He's been producing right around this price since returning to the starting lineup. Deron is a great high-floor player when healthy and the Nets are a 1.5 point underdog in a 204 o/u game tonight @ DET. It's a B2B for him, but he was held to just 30 mins last night after 41 & 39 the two previous games so he should have enough in the tank.

Jarrett Jack $3700- The entire Cavs starting lineup was benched down the stretch last game, much to the chagrin of the Cleveland fanbase, and ultimately leading to the firing of their GM. Jack still posted 14 fpts in 17 mins so IF he remains starting then his production scales nicely to a 25-30 minute role at this price. NOTE: Kyrie missed shootaround this morning, and if he sits Jack becomes an instant Top Target as the starting PG for the Cavs at this price. In that event, simultaneously discount Wizards for the increased risk of blowout (WAS is -9 w/Kyrie playing).


SG
TOP TARGETS
Danny Granger $3600- Sure to be the value du jour, Granger steps in for an injured Stephenson tonight. In his other start Jan. 8th, Granger posted 28 fpts in a season-high 32 mins @ ATL. It's worth noting, though, that he had also played 32 mins the night before which makes the performance a bit more impressive. Additionally, the Pacers managed just 87 points as a team that night and oddsmakers project them to break 100 tonight in a higher-scoring matchup than usual against POR. When they tangoed in early December, it resulted in a 106-102 POR win at home.  

Randy Foye $6500- Suddenly a floortime beast, Foye has topped 40 mins in four straight leading to some high volume (30+ fpts in each). At this rate owners will want to ride him until he drops a dud, which is less likely in a close matchup with NY tonight.

BEST OF THE REST
Monta Ellis $7100- After a short rough patch, Ellis is back on track (31+ fpts in three straight) playing bigger minutes, including 40 last game in a 14 point win against MEM. Better matchup tonight against UTA and limited quality SG targets available.

Steve Blake $6100- A late addition to this article, the Lakers mess at guard has a great chance to get sorted out before the early start @ PHI. Farmar is officially out after surprising with a 21 point-8 assist game last time out. Nash will play, but on a fairly strict mins limit and is always a risk to leave sooner. The Lakers listed Blake as a GTD with a thigh injury, but he played to the last whistle vs. CLE and grabbed his 10th board at the buzzer for a triple-double. With Manny Harris' contract not renewed...and Meeks and Nick young also sidelined...Blake could be in line for a ton of time in a massively high-scoring affair with the Sixers. IF he's a full-go, bump him to just under Granger on this list, regardless of Redick's status.

Jamal Crawford $6900- IF Redick sits again, Crawford will have a chance for an encore performance after his monster 45 fpts in 47(!) mins played on primetime against the Heat. If he does start, bump him ahead of Foye on this list.

Brad Beal $6500- I'm going to keep him on here as a GPP only option until he blows up. He's played 34+ mins in three straight including 16 shots in his last two...it's only a matter of time before his talent takes over again.


SF
TOP TARGETS
Rudy Gay $8300- Gay bounced right back from his low mins game in the blowout vs. CHI, posting 48 fpts in 43 mins against his former Raptors teammates. The Kings are a 1.5 point favorite in a close game @ BOS tonight so expect a full complement of playing time again for Gay, who has managed 48+ fpts in four of six games.

Wesley Johnson $4500- The door is wide open for WesJ tonight after both Meeks and Nick Young got hurt in the past two Lakers games. He's the only SF on the roster, as evidenced by LA signing Shawne Williams yesterday for depth. Johnson has played 41 & 38 mins the last two games, topping 30 fpts on 15+ shots in each. The kicker to his value tonight is the 219 o/u matchup with PHI in a game devoid of defense.

BEST OF THE REST
Paul George $8100- The emerging superstar hasn't been this cheap in a long time, which tells you how poor his recent performance has been. In the game Jan. 8th that Stephenson sat out, George played his best game of 2014 as his shots spiked to 25 and he topped 40 minutes for the only time this year in regulation. He poured in 47 fpts that night on just 87 team points, and last time he matched up with POR (Dec. 2) he went ballistic in putting the team on his back going 16-30 and 7-15 from range for a 43-3-3-3 line. It's probably time for him to hit the 40 fpts mark for the first time in seven games.

Evan Turner $6600- This is purely a matchup target, as Turner has turned in four straight sub-30 fpts games. PHI is a 2.5 point favorite tonight at home against the Lakers and 219(!) points are expected. It's hard to tell exactly where the points will come from, but Turner is certainly a candidate for a ceiling game of 35-40+ fpts. Note: There was a report that PHI is hoping to land a first-round pick for Turner or Hawes...no team has been linked to being interested but it's a reminder around the trade deadline that some names will get moved and we don't want to be stuck with them on daily rosters in that event.

Jeff Green $6500- He has shown an extremely low floor (21 fpts or fewer in four of eight), but also some tremendous ceiling with two 50+ blowup games in his last seven. This renders him mostly to GPP appeal at this price, but I expect him to settle in to more consistency as Rondo continues to round into form distributing the ball.


PF
TOP TARGETS
Jared Sullinger $6200- Big three-game stretch (47 37 46 fpts) as his minutes have jumped to 35+. Two of those games were against PHI so don't expect 40+ every night by any means, but a close game with SAC gives him another chance at a solid game while he continues to be priced at a discount in this role.

Andray Blatche $5600- KG is expected to sit on the B2B for the Nets and that means fire up Blatche. He needed just 19 mins last night to post 28 fpts, and has averaged 31 fpts in 30 mins when starting at C in place of Garnett this year.

Anthony Davis $9900- Davis averages 6+ more fpts in home games this year. He could be facing a Timberwolves frontcourt missing both Love AND Pek and I don't see Cunningham and Turiaf putting up much of a fight in keeping the phenom from hitting the 49 fpts he's averaged in his last nine.

Blake Griffin $9800- Blake is neck-and-neck with Davis tonight with a great matchup of his own against TOR. It would probably help him if Redick is out, as he shot 34(!) times last game vs. MIA en route to his 66 fpts ceiling game. The discouraging part is he still didn't shoot 50% from the field so if those shots scale back to 20 then he'll regress to a 45 fpts type player which is why I prefer Davis slightly. Also, his big two games came in higher-scoring games than tonight is expected. Working in Griffin's favor is his 10 free throws made in each of his last two and 4+ assists in three straight to bolster his fantasy lines.

BEST OF THE REST
Dante Cunningham $4200- MIN plays a late game but if we're lucky enough to know Love's status earlier then Cunningham makes for a solid value play IF starting. He stepped in last game to the tune of 42 fpts in 43 mins, surprising the fantasy world. He would have a tough positional matchup with Anthony Davis, but if he can stay on the floor for 35+ mins again you can look for 25+ fpts at a discount.

Thaddeus Young $7000- He will be overlooked tonight being priced between the obvious values and toptions, but Thad has an enormous matchup upgrade against the Lakers without Pau. He's averaged 15 shots in his last five games and based on the points expectation in this game it would not be surprising to see him pour in 35-40 fpts for nearly $3k less than Davis and Griffin.


C
TOP TARGETS
DeMarcus Cousins $9500- Straight beastmode for Cousins in both games since returning from injury (25-10-4-1 in each). He draws a favorable matchup tonight against an undersized BOS frontcourt so don't hesitate to lock him in at a weak C position tonight and work backwards.

BEST OF THE REST
Spencer Hawes $6700- Hawes is less consistent than Thaddeus, but the matchup is no less appetizing. He's coming off his best game in the last ten (41 fpts) and has hit value at this price in four of those ten withOUT facing the Lakers. At the very least he's worth a look for GPP's as Cousins will be highly owned. SEE: Note on Evan Turner's writeup for trade deadline risk.

Samuel Dalembert $4000- If you're compelled to search for a bottom-dip at C then Dalembert is your guy. He's posted a couple solid games in a row (25 32 fpts) without needing to play more than half the game. Earlier this year he put up 35 fpts in 29 mins against UTA on 8-8 shooting making him warrant some GPP consideration. Note: Sacre is still starting, but struggled last game and Jordan Hill is going to play tonight which will cut into his expectation.

DeAndre Jordan $7800- For those looking for a different toption with consistency, DeAndre has ranged 33-41 fpts in his last six games and has a solid matchup with TOR. However, there's no ceiling for him at this price with his limited offensive game.


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