Guest Blog: Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for Thursday 02/06/14 by Hoop Dreams

Posted by JayBo64 JayBo64
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Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for Draftstreet and FanDuel 2/6/14

After an insane night in the NBA that saw the Lakers run out of players, the Cavs starters get benched, a double OT game in Washington, and huge lines all over the place, tonight we relax. We put our feet up, embrace the relative quiet and take a deep breath. Tonight we've only got two games, with some of the least exciting teams around. But that doesn't mean we can't put together some quality squads.

Tonight we'll give some picks for DraftKings. This is a DFSR first, but not a last. Things are made a bit easier on DraftKings because of more flexible positional considerations. That comes in handy on a night like tonight. On to the picks.



Guard
While I think Deron Williams and Shaun Livingston have a decent matchup against the Spurs, I'm just a bit worried about them splitting PT and decreasing each other's value. This changes if Joe Johnson sits again, but it looks like he is going to play. So I think you can slot in some cheaper options here tonight to pair with...

Stephen Curry DS $19,096 DK $10,100-
The biggest money on the board tonight and I don't really see a situation in which you should opt to fade him. Not only does he have the highest upside of any player, but if you opt to play some of the other cheaper options, you just won't be able to get the money in without Steph. The Bulls will look to grind this game to a halt for sure, but they've been about league average of late against opposing shooting guards. Curry is a must play tonight.

Patty Mills DS $7,163 DK $3,300-
This is a little speculation of course, but last night Parker left the game with back issues and didn't return. I'd be shocked, with Parkers bumps and bruises this season, if he suited up tonight. That leaves Mills to run the point. Patty's been superb in filling in for Parker this season. And though Cory Joseph has drawn some starts in Parker's absence, Mills plays a bulk of the PG minutes. If Tony sits Mills makes a must play. Honestly, on a slow night, Mills doesn't even make the worst option if Parker is playing.

Danny Green DS $7,305 DK $3,600-
Back from injury and has been playing better than ever. He picked up a massive amount of the offensive load last night in the Spurs double OT win against the Wizards, dropping a 22/7/2 line. Now of course that's above and beyond expectation but it's worth it to note that Brooklyn allows about 10% more scoring than league average to opposing shooting guards. Couple that with the Spurs possibly being without Parker (and maybe Duncan as well) and Green makes for a perfect safe option with significant upside if the shot is falling.

Jimmy Butler DS $11,450 DK $6,100-
There are only 48 possible minutes to play in a regulation NBA game and Butler is on the court for almost all of them every night. It's just insane how much run he gets. That kind of volume translates and makes him someone to keep an eye on every night. He and Klay Thompson are similarly priced on DK, but I'd much rather have Butler. The decision becomes a bit closer on DraftStreet because Klay is in the 9K range. But I think you can afford Butler tonight and should pay for the safety.



Forward
Forward in general is a big problem tonight. There just aren't many real quality options. Tim Duncan played forty minutes last night which has me concerned about his availability tonight. After him, as you'll soon see, the pickings are slim.

Carlos Boozer DS $11,768 DK $6,500 -
Without many good options, I think Boozer is your best bet at the forward position tonight. Golden State is just meh* against power forwards and have been even worse of late. Some of that is Lee having been sidelined, but he isn't a great defender anyway. Boozer sees his minutes each game and can even crush these salaries. He makes the best value at forward today and it isn't particularly close. *pro term

Kevin Garnett DS $9,174 DK $4,800-
The minutes are an issue for sure. Only getting about 20 a night makes it tough to count on consistent production. But KG's been quasi-useful even with limited run.

Taj Gibson DS $11,470 DK $5,800-
If you're like me, you thought the Luol Deng trade would mean the coming out party for Taj Gibson. Though the positions are different of course, it just seemed like he'd see an instant boost in minutes and production. That hasn't happened. Sure he's shown flashes but the consistency is a major issue. On a small night though I think you can slot him in and hope its a boom rather than a bust kind of affair against the Warriors.

David Lee DS $13,957-
I only listed his DraftStreet price because I think he's a much better deal there today. This is a crazy low price for Lee even factoring in the recent injury issues and the opponent. I think you can safely take him here as long as there is no injury concern heading into game time.



Center
Only two way to go here. On DraftStreet I prefer...

Joakim Noah DS $15,190 DK $7,500-
For the money, Noah has a slight edge over Bogut in their matchup. Both guys are above average defenders and will have to work hard for points tonight. But the expectation is a bit higher for Noah and since their prices are nearly identical on DS, I'm taking Noah.

On DraftKings our system has Noah and...

Andrew Bogut DK $6,700 as a virtual coin flip. Like literally you should flip a coin. Or better yet, create what you believe is an optimal lineup and slot whichever works better with the money. For our system, both have the same dollar/expected point ratio.

So there you have it. On a short night in the NBA it's imperative you spend those dollars wisely and optimally. If you want more insight into creating NBA lineups, http://http://www.dailyfantasysportsrankings.com/ebook/ has written an ebook on making daily fantasy basketball picks. Head on over and get a copy now. He also makes daily picks of his own. You can follow DFSR on twitter https://twitter.com/dailyfantasysr

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